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Predictions for 2010

Much has been written by the experts predicting what will happen in 2010.

Economists in particular have been some what guarded in their predictions given how wrong they were in predicting the Global Financial Crisis.

We thought it might help if we gave you our views on the areas in which we specialize.

1) What we know.

We know the following:

• The World Cup will take place in June 2010
• The inflation rate in South Africa has stabilized
• The rate at which our economy has slowed is not as severe as 2009
• Whilst many of the larger infrastructural construction projects will end in 2010 building houses for those of our people living in informal settlements will continue.
• We have political stability and a stable rand.
• Our macro-economic fundamentals are sound
• +- 500 000 lost their jobs in 2009.

What we don’t know is how this will affect South Africa:

We predict the following:

2) Wage and salary increases.

• This year’s wage negotiations at our 37 Bargaining Councils and our many plant level negotiations will be very difficult. The present difficulties between ABI and FAWU and Southern Sun and SACCAWU is a fore runner of what to expect in 2010.
• Wage settlements will range between 9 and 12%.
• Salaries will increase by between 7% and 9%.

3) Strikes

We will experience more strikes than 2009, particularly during the first 6 months of 2010. Employers are being squeezed between the economic slowdown and rising expectations of Trade Union members.

4) Employment Equity

The Department of Labour will put pressure on employers to deliver on their Employment Equity Plans. The employers standard response of “the skilled people are not available” will not be accepted by the Department of Labour. The question employers will be asked is “What have you done to help South African citizens to obtain those skills?”

5) Black Economic Empowerment

The state will come to the conclusion that only a small percentage of employers are involved in ownership transactions. The majority of employers in South Africa employ fewer than 50 employees and have an annual turnover of less than R35 million. This makes it unnecessary to involve themself in ownership transactions.

We believe there will be more changes to the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment Act. The changes will put pressure on smaller employers to become involved in ownership transactions.

6) Training

One of the consequences of the economic slowdown has been the retrenchment of employees. Employers now have fewer employees. We do not see employment levels increasing rapidly in 2010. We believe employers will train their existing employees in order to make them more efficient and effective. This means that those organizations involved in training will do well

7) Conclusion

We wish all our readers the very best for 2010 – and enjoy the World Cup